Career effects of violent shocks: Evidence from mass shootings in colleges and universities (JMP)
Mass shootings at colleges and universities account for more than a third of mass shootings in US educational institutions and are becoming more frequent, yet their effects on students and communities have not been systematically examined. I combine university-level data and gun violence reports with professional profiles of 4 million graduates to estimate the effects of mass shootings on human capital accumulation, employment and occupational choice. Using a stacked difference-in-differences design covering shootings between 1990 and 2025, I compare cohorts at affected universities before and after the shooting with cohorts at matched control universities. I find no detectable effects on time to degree, but undergraduates enrolled at the time of the shooting are 4.2% less likely to pursue further studies. Those who do continue shift toward health: the share of exposed cohorts who later enroll in a health degree rises by 1.3 percentage points (8.8%), and this effect persists among cohorts who enroll after the shooting. Effects on students present during the shooting are consistent with a response to trauma; for later cohorts, I find evidence of sorting, as master’s students with prior healthcare experience become more likely to enroll in affected universities. These results suggest that mass shootings leave institutional and cultural legacies that outlast the students who witnessed them.
Radio for Progress: Lessons from a Large-Scale Media Education Program in Colombia
with Bruno Cardinale Lagomarsino
Abstract
We harness archival records and full-count census data to evaluate the long-term impact of Radio Sutatenza, a nationwide adult education program in Colombia. Using a differences-in-differences cohort-level specification comparing individuals who were younger upon program arrival, we find no significant improvements in adult literacy, likely due to positive selection. However, the program produced an unintended 10% increase in children’s likelihood of completing primary school.
Work in progress
Preaching Change: The Effect of Evangelical Churches on Crime in Colombian Cities (with Thomas Lloyd and Juan P. Posada Aparicio)
Prosociality in online contexts (generously funded by the Watson School of International and Public Affairs)
